By the end of 2024, will Ukraine still hold any of the Russian territory it currently holds?
➕
Plus
136
Ṁ34k
Jan 1
98.2%
chance

According to ISW or similar

Edit: To address a potential edge case, this still resolves YES if Ukraine gets pushed back to the border but then regains some ground before the end of the year.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Just to be clear, I think this should resolve No if Ucrainian forces will leave the occupied land willingly, following a peace treat, right?

(Edit: i meant no 😅)

I would think that's a NO, since they'd relinquished it. Good question to clarify early! @benjaminIkuta ?

Right, I meant No, I edited my comment 😅

Right

To address a potential edge case, this still resolves YES if Ukraine gets pushed back to the border but then regains some ground before the end of the year.

bought Ṁ100 NO

Assuming this excludes the portions of the formally annexed oblasts that Ukraine still controls?

?

Russia has de jure annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. It doesn’t yet have de facto control over those oblasts. So on one view, Ukraine occupies Russian territory.

Ah, I see what you mean. No, this is referring to Kursk.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules