Will the IDF continue occupying Gaza and killing civilians through the end of 2024?
Basic
13
Ṁ2363
Dec 31
89%
chance

It is the start of 2024 and the IDF still keeps killing civilians in their desparate effort to eradicate Hamas. The civilian deaths in Gaza keep rising and they don't seem to be slowing down.

What do you think?

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bought Ṁ100 YES

Civilian deaths in Gaza have, in fact, slowed down a lot:

https://data.techforpalestine.org/

@EpicBananaMan Time to resolve?

@mods ? Perhaps rename this market to "Will the IDF continue occupying Gaza and [causing civilian casualties] at the end of 2024?"

I have no idea how to read this market. what if they stop on Dec 30th? they still did. but also, it was made in 2024 about 2024. feels like a tautology

I thought so too, but the comments below had me arrive at it being somewhat of a English proficiency issue (at least partially), and that EOY 2024 was hinted at.

based on your suggestion and the creator's comments I made an edit that I hope is sufficient. it's still a highly subjective market imo

I think it's a definite improvement. Let's hope this brings people onboard with more accurate expectations 🤞 Agree about the subjectivity.

The whole of 24 or up until some date? Because it's already 24 and they still are

@B1e0e I'm hoping "in" means any time.

@Ap I'm hoping too, I'll resolve the post if I see any significant updates.

@Ap wouldn't this resolve yes right now then?

@B1e0e But this spans throughout the year, it doesn't seem to be slowing down but we really can't talk until the end of the year.

@EpicBananaMan ok I don't understand how this gets resolved then. They keep killing civilians for another 9 months? 6 months? 3 months? 2 days? I mean it's been 2 days and they are still killing civilians, so technically they are continuing to kill civilians in 2024

@EpicBananaMan hold on, so you mean this resolved to Yes if it is still happening by the end of the year?

@Ap Yes, I will make a follow-up post if this spans to next year, I'll admit my phrasing was a bit bad. Meaning I'm not resolving the post until I see some major change in the civilian casualties.

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