When will the next Falcon launch happen?
As of July 12, Falcon 9 is grounded.
This market includes both Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches. It includes launches with any payload (Starlink or other internal payloads, as well as external customer payloads, crewed launches, etc.), as well as demo launches with no payload or mass simulator payloads, provided the stated intent is an orbital, near-orbital, or higher energy launch.
All dates are "on or before", using local time at the launch site. Close date will be extended if needed. Additional options will be added if that looks appropriate based on trading and announcements.
The Starship flights count orbital and near-orbital flights, similar to IFT 1-4. The question is which leaves the ground first.
For all flights, launch is when the rocket moves under its own power with the intent of reaching (near-) orbit.
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https://bsky.app/profile/wandrme.paxex.aero/post/3ky5fz4hkxv2k
SpaceX cleared for return to launch operations per FAA statement: "After a comprehensive review, the FAA determined no public safety issues were involved in the anomaly that occurred during the SpaceX Starlink Group 9-3 launch on July 11..."
IDK, look at base rates, read the tea leaves of announcements and media articles, use insider info? All the usual techniques?
We're definitely at the edge of stuff we have precedent for -- this is the most reliable rocket ever, and hasn't had a failure in 9 years. It's also a failure that didn't impact an external customer, from an unusually risk-aware and risk-tolerant launch provider. But hey, we forecast unprecedented stuff all the time around here, right?
And there's interesting rumors and possibilities, like maybe SpaceX knew this hardware had issues and sent it on a lower-importance mission after signing risk tickets.
Anyway, I made it in a hurry to improve on a pre-existing market that had some problems but clear interest. I think I chose the buckets incorrectly; if I was doing it over again I'd skip the October and November buckets at the very least, and probably the March one as well.