If LK-99 is confirmed to be a superconductor, will it produce more than 100 million USD by 2025?
Plus
51
Ṁ9707Jan 1
21%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If LK-99 does not turn out to be an actual room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor, this resolves N/A.
(Roughly, if this; https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre resolves NO, this question resolves N/A.)
Otherwise, I'll try to estimate the economic value of the invention, looking at stuff like company valuations, patent sales or fees, and credible media/academic estimates, and, if the value exceeds 100 million USD, this resolves YES. If the value is hard to estimate but seems around that value from just tangible benefits, I'll lean yes if it seems there's hard-to-quantify value created.
This might resolve YES early if it's clear the value is already way past the threshold.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?
1% chance
Conditional on any room-temp superconductor being replicated before 2025, will the main LK-99 market resolve YES?
33% chance
Nobel Prize by 2026 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
66% chance
If LK-99 conducts electricity with (nearly) zero resistivity, will it be a type II superconductor?
54% chance
Given that LK-99 is a rt/ap superconductor, will its average market price in 2028 be below $5,000.00 / metric ton?
17% chance
Will there be a popular market on a new claimed superconductor by 2026?
36% chance
Will a room-temperature superconductor with a similar-but-different composition to LK-99 be discovered by 2025?
1% chance
Nobel Prize by 2035 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
81% chance
Will LK-99's manufacturing process inspire a new room temperature superconducting material by 2025?
2% chance
Conditional on LK-99 being replicated, will American Superconductor Company stock trade above $30?
53% chance