A law requiring ByteDance (TikTok's Chinese parent company) to sell TikTok or face a ban in the United States is set to take effect on January 19, 2025. TikTok has appealed to the Supreme Court to block this law, arguing it violates the First Amendment and other constitutional provisions. The case is currently pending.
Meanwhile, it seems like Trump might not enforce the law, leaving it theoretically banned but still accessible.
This market will resolve YES if TikTok is no longer available for download in both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store on March 1, 2025.
The market will resolve NO if either:
TikTok remains available and functional in the U.S. on March 1, 2025, being downloadable from at least one of those app stores
The ban is blocked, delayed, or overturned before March 1, 2025
ByteDance sells TikTok to a U.S. company before March 1, 2025, avoiding a ban
1,000
3.00I am instructing the Attorney General not to take any action to enforce the Act for a period of 75 days from today
Trump has issued an executive order to not enforce the ban before April 5, so this will likely resolve NO. However, it seems plausible that he will take other actions before then, so I will leave this unresolved for a period of time to assess whether I am certain it will not be banned on March 1.