Will TikTok be banned in the United States by the end of 2025?
➕
Plus
77
Ṁ39k
2026
98%
chance

Resolution Yes Criteria:

  1. Government Announcement:

    • An official announcement from the United States government, such as the White House, Congress, or a relevant federal agency (e.g., Department of Commerce), explicitly states that TikTok is banned in the United States.

  2. Legislative Action:

    • The passing of a federal law or regulation that explicitly bans TikTok from operating within the United States.

  3. Platform Accessibility:

    • TikTok is no longer accessible within the United States through official app stores (Apple App Store, Google Play Store) and internet service providers, as verified by major news outlets or official statements.

Resolution No Criteria:

  1. Continued Operation:

    • TikTok continues to operate and is accessible within the United States without any official bans or prohibitions from the government.

  2. No Official Ban:

    • There are no official announcements, laws, or regulations passed by the United States government explicitly banning TikTok from operating within the country.

  3. Government Statements:

    • Official statements from relevant government agencies or representatives confirm that TikTok is not banned in the United States.

Sources for Verification:

  1. Official Government Websites and Announcements:

    • Websites and official announcements from the White House, Congress, Department of Commerce, and other relevant federal agencies.

  2. Legislative Records:

    • Records of federal laws and regulations, available through the official websites of the United States Congress and other government legislative tracking services.

  3. Reputable News Outlets:

    • Reports from well-established and credible news organizations covering the status and accessibility of TikTok within the United States.

  4. Tech and App Store Verification:

    • Availability status on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store, and reports from major tech news outlets.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

market is way too high — currently it is banned, by EOY could be back

@nmca it’s back up

@nmca So what if it's back up? It was banned before the end of 2025, so we are owed ayes resolution. Criteria 3 was met.

@RiverBellamy I bought No at 98.8 and sold at 70, many share your struggle to understand the text it seems.

@nmca “By” means at any time before.

@jks I’m out of the market I’ll let you guys duke it out.

@nmca Sounds like you intentionally sowed confusion in order to profit off of it. And with silly play money no less. That is a dirty trick, and contrary to the collective epistemic project we are trying to engage in here. You should be ashamed of yourself.

@RiverBellamy title is “will it be banned”, not “will it have been banned”; I think interpretation is clearly about whether the criteria hold at EOY 25, though ofc ambiguous enough that it got to 98.5. Too high imo.

Also this whole vibe is hilarious — I was hoping manifold could be a good twitter replacement and it looks really promising!

bought Ṁ850 YES

@predyx_markets

Apple, Google remove TikTok from stores as app halts service in US

Published Sat, Jan 18 2025 11:00 PM EST

Updated 3 Min Ago

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

Yep with platform accessibility gone, this can resolve now IMHO

bought Ṁ300 YES

I think Yes Resolution Crtieria 3 is currently true. Major news outlets are reporting that the TikTok platform is currently not available

Will it resolve no if TikTok gets bought by a US entity to avoid the ban?

Yes it will resolve to No.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Trump is the favorite to win the presidency and he is now against banning Tik Tok: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-tiktok-ban-reversal-after-meeting-megadonor-stake/story?id=108013785

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