By the end of 2024, will any of my open markets have gotten no bets for a year?
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18
Ṁ3052
resolved Aug 9
Resolved
YES

Any market going 1 year without a bet will resolve this to YES, even if it later gets a bet before the end of 2024. A limit order that is placed but not filled still counts as a bet.

If it looks like someone has made a bot to buy and then immediately sell M$1, or place and remove limit orders on all of my markets in order to manipulate this one, I will ignore those bets.

#Predictions on Predictions
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Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
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bought Ṁ750 YES

@IsaacKing It appears this market has gone for a year without a bet

this is hilarious

The "Ancient Market" quest seems like it will solve this problem, especially once there's a clean solution to surfacing ancient markets.

predicted YES

@Gabrielle How do you surface them?

predicted NO

@KatjaGrace Currently there's not a good way, but I'm working on a bot that will make a group containing ancient markets. It's going to take a bit, but it'll definitely be sooner than the end of 2024.

You could try to force YES by closing a market with no bets, then reopening a year later.

predicted YES

@JimHays I won't do that.

predicted YES

Not looking great so far. Manifold doesn't boost old markets in any way, so they tend to get buried by the algorithm.

predicted NO

Do limit orders count?

@Yev Never mind.

Does this mean no bets for any one-year period between now and then, or specifically no bets between the beginning and end of 2024?

@Multicore Any one year period.

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