Will any real-money prediction market let anyone create a market on anything before the end of 2024? | Manifold

Will any real-money prediction market let anyone create a market on anything before the end of 2024?

Plus

18

Ṁ1715

Jan 2

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Any random guy off the street must be able to sign up and create a market. A bit of basic KYC is fine, but anything particularly exclusive is not.

If a few specific types of markets (assassination, war, etc.) are banned that's fine, it just needs to be possible to create questions on the vast majority of things, like "will this date go well".

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

#Meta-Forecasting

#Prediction Markets General Discussion

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Does the current state of manifold count as a real-money market to you? Or would it only count if arbitrary users can make their market a prize point market?

@josh Depends on how liberal they are turning markets into prize point ones. If it's just "you have to write comprehensive resolution criteria", that'll count. If it's "we only promote markets on this small list of topics", that won't.

I like how this market demonstrates how confusing the word "any" is.

Related questions

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

+22% 1d70% chance

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Which prediction markets will win? At the end of 2024, will any prediction markets have a clear lead over the others?

Will real money political prediction markets be legal before 2029 conditional on who wins the presidential election?

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?

+5% 1d30% chance

Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?

Related questions

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?

Which prediction markets will win? At the end of 2024, will any prediction markets have a clear lead over the others?

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will real money political prediction markets be legal before 2029 conditional on who wins the presidential election?

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules