Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?
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More specifically:
A) Will they consistently drive other markets (e.g., drug discovery)
B) least 20% of randos know what they are
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@Adam I don't think this is true. In worlds where manifold fails, mana goes to 0, but otherwise mana should always be worth just below a cent
@toms I think in the world where 80 million Americans know about prediction markets, being a high profile early adopter with a track record of success will be a valuable signal. It's not the mana, it's the profit on your profile
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