If a large, good survey of AI engineers in the United States is run, what will be the average p(doom) within 10 years?
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The survey must be representative of all programmers working on AI. There cannot be a biased towards ones engaged in X-risk discourse, those more active on Twitter, etc.
The survey must clearly state that the question is about the chance that AI kills or enslaves >99% of people on Earth within the next 10 years, or some very similar proposition. (e.g. if it asks about 15 years instead of 10 that still counts, but 100 years does not.)
The survey must be unbiased, and not use emotionally charged language or other push polling techniques.
Resolves N/A if no such survey is performed by the end of 2024.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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