Hi, so this is a little tricky to resolve, although I'm leaning more NO than YES.

I was thinking a "release" counts as anything where they are allowing access to a larger set of people. So a full public release is not necessary.

But I'm not sure if there's any release yet — no one is getting access today AFAIK?

Then there's the question of whether announcing access soon counts as a release. Probably not?

I could do one of those compromises that makes no one happy by resolving to like 20%. Because it was sort of a release, but I'm not sure about that.

Feel free to give your arguments!

In the meantime, I'm going to close this market to further trading.

@JamesGrugett not partial resolve 😠 resolves no 👼

@JamesGrugett I think it will be fair to resolve to 15%(current price) because it is a price which is decided by market

@JamesGrugett Sam at the end of the day 12 video: "We plan to launch o3-mini around the end of January, and full o3 shortly after that."

"Launch" seems roughly analogous to what I originally interpreted "release" to mean for this market. To be even more pedantic based on the market's title, they say they're only starting to open up safety testing access for o3-mini today, not o3

I'm obviously biased 😇

https://www.youtube.com/live/SKBG1sqdyIU

@Techiavellian Yup, I think I'm going to resolve NO currently at the end of today / tomorrow unless someone has a better argument.

@JamesGrugett I see no ambiguity here. It was clearly announced but not yet released.

@JamesGrugett I think this is clearly not a release; approximately no one has access outside OpenAI yet. It's equivalent to the Sora reveal in February, no one would have said they released Sora then.

think it’s a

yes

@PaulHan but there's no actual access, not even for the testing

>2024-19-12

YYYY-DD-MM? 😂

Wow, this market got exciting

@JamesGrugett So... does this count?

Actually I'm quite suprised that they talked about o3 maybe I should believe leaks more

@Blocksterpen3 maybe that's what they want you to think

Wait... they say they aren't releasing it today but are announcing it and are making it available soon for safety testing.... so what does that mean for this question?

It's well known that AI labs compete to release models with increasingly terrible names. o3 is the natural next step

Didn't they just release o1 how are they going to release another huge model so soon

Is there a version of this question where it's just announced/revealed but not released? (or maybe only a limited release etc)

@JamesGrugett If there is a signup for o3, how will that resolve?

@NathanpmYoung he doesn't believe in technicalities so it would resolve YES

@jim I've put a limit order here on that specific question. https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-openai-release-an-o2-or-o3-sig?play=true

@NathanpmYoung don't fill my order I don't want u going broke

@jim @NathanpmYoung to be clear, I actually do want you to fill my order.

masterful bait jim, keep it up

@JamesGrugett I edited the title because I thought that's what you would want. If you disagree I'll mana you M1000.

@NathanpmYoung Thanks Nathan!