Will behavioral prediction markets be used in a dating app before 2025?
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A ton of dating market friction is due to uncertainty about the other person & asymmetry of knowledge about them (like the famous "market for lemons" Econ paper). Prediction markets inside [dating apps with transparency of each user's behavioral history] could be used to substantially reduce uncertainty about both the past and future behavior of each participant. (E.g all the girls Chad has hooked up with through the app and then ghosted could add their experiences to a public record on Chad's profile and bet on whether he will do the same thing to his next conquest. This will substantially reduce amount of regretted time people waste dating people who don't align with their long term goals, and probably reduce the gap between intended and realized fertility)

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I’m thinking the killer app here is getting people to pay money to manipulate prediction markets about themselves to get more dates. Or you could sort of see that as putting up collateral to incentivize desirable behavior lol

What features would manifold.love have to implement in order for it to count?

@EvanDaniel Date reviews and a pm group for each user

This sounds doable for manifold.love, though I’m unsure about whether the devs are actually gonna work on this…

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