Has Biden bottomed? (In the RCP polling average)
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In the RCP's Biden vs Trump polling average, the lowest Biden has ever been was 42.6% on May 10th, 2023.

Several times he has gotten very close to this number, including recently when was at 43.0% on Jan 26th, 2024.

If Biden's polling in the RCP Biden vs Trump average is ever lower than 42.6% before election day, this market resolves No. Otherwise, this market resolves Yes.

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What happens if he's not longer the nominee and RCP drops their coverage?

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The number of undecided voters will only shrink over time. Pretty unlikely that he'll go back down to such a low percentage when there are few undecideds left.

@PlasmaBallin Makes sense. There's usually a bit of shrinkage when bottoming (in the polls)

Surprised Dalle was fine with this title

@jskf I think it did a pretty good job too!

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