Will Trump be elected President in 2024 / Will Trump serve time?
Plus
45
แน5916Jan 1
30%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and serves time before death
62%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and never serves time before death
5%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and serves time before death
3%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and never serves time before death
Live updating visualization of conditional odds:
How correlated are these events? Let's find out.
What counts?
Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.
Winning the election is defined by reliable media sources reporting.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I have to do math now to see if arbitrage is possible past the fees :/
14 percent different between this and the conditional market you mentioned. So room for profit!
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