I have to do math now to see if arbitrage is possible past the fees :/

14 percent different between this and the conditional market you mentioned. So room for profit!

I found a market in the classical binary N/A style that thinks it's a 67% chance he serves time if he loses, where we currently show 80% here:

Well apparently there's actually a 35% chance he gets elected, and a 76% chance he serves time. This is the one correct market, everyone go arbitrage the other markets until they match this one!