If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?
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22
Ṁ1285
2026
34%
chance

The AfD is a right-wing populist party in Germany. Parts of it are openly extremist, e.g. calling for mass deportations of immigrants, even if they are German citizens.

They are currently polling at >20%.

Some politicians and law experts have said that the AfD should be banned because it presents a danger to democracy.

Because banning a party is a severe interference with foundational freedoms, the hurdles are high and it's not certain the process would be successful.

Resolves N/A if nobody asks the court to ban the AfD.

If a process is ongoing at time of market closing, I will extend the market.

Resolves YES if the AfD is banned in any Bundesland.

Resolves NO if the court rules that the AfD should not be banned, even if they have to make significant changes.

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e.g. calling for mass deportations of immigrants, even if they are German citizens.

This is wrong, not only the AfD has denied this, but also the much more right wing Sellner, who was the original source at the alleged "right-wing secret meeting" the media reported about.

There is no evidence that anybody ever said this.

11% seems way too low - I think they would only ask the court if it was more likely to be successful

@LudwigBald They should only ask if there's reasonable chance for success, but whether they actually hold back until there is a chance depends on how desperately they want to hurt the AfD.

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