Florida is like 97% R this cycle. It would take a black swan event for Trump to lose. Voter Registrations were the early signal that Trump would win in 2020. They are cataclysmic for Dems now. The voter rolls are stringently cleaned up. Its a friendlier R environment. Dem PAC polls can only get Harris within 4. Come on what are we doing here. I'll keep buying in that case.

Nate Silver gives Harris almost a 20% chance to win

Silver has written about meteorologists padding their forecasts to compensate for unknown variables. Florida was a swing state a few years ago so there might be some unknowns his model doesn't account for.

Silver's calibration is significantly better than Manifold's

Party reg and primary turnout have both fallen off a cliff for Dems- not completely predictive indicators, but they don't fill me with optimism.

The D primary turnout decrease is because of lack of competitive primary. Party registration drop off between 2021-22 would be reflected in 2022 midterms and could perhaps explain R outperformance. I'm not sure 23-24 trend is as meaningful because of the presidential primary, and unaffiliated also dropped.

According to the Florida Department of Elections there are a lot of voters not participating in recent elections. A win for either party in Florida really looks like it all comes down to mobilization. They also have a huge block of independents.

Voter Registration

Source: https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

Voter Turnout

Source: https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/elections-data/voter-turnout/

Obama-level dem mobilization is not out of the question, but I don't know what indicators would show that happening

How did a state that went for Obama in 2008 and 2012 become a Trump lock?

Massive incompetence by the Florida Democratic Party, to be honest

Boomer migration and realignment among non-college educated white

Hispanics in Florida are pretty friendly to Reps as well, particularly cubans

I am selling my investment before the value of Mana is decreased to a tenth of its current value on May 1 2024.

I bought DEM YES. With how the state is trending, this may be an impossible task and require significant changes in polling (or maybe a good old October surprise) but this court ruling makes it slightly more likely:

@mint This doesn't have as much significance as you think. Florida has strong protections for these Amendments initiatives. These two initiatives could drive voter turnout and that's probably the point but Trump would still need to fall pretty low in polling to flip the state.

All states and districts in one market: