Resolves after the AP calls the race.
1,000
1.00
@polymathematic Because average polling error within a single state one month out from the election is probably like 5%, lol
@polymathematic Hence why the chance is 85%. The market is basically saying there's a 15% chance of an above-average polling error in Texas benefitting Harris.
@PlasmaBallin is that supposed to be symmetrical? So an implied 30-36% chance (since people have been buying Dems up to 18%) that Texas polling is going to be off by more than 6 points? That doesn’t seem reasonable. I think the most Texas polling has been off in the last 12 cycles is 4 points, and the average is 2.
@polymathematic The market may still be overestimating Harris - Nate Silver's model gives her single-digit chances in Texas. Are the numbers you gave for the final polling average or the polling average ~40 days out?
@PlasmaBallin well, that's a fair point, i was looking at final polling averages. again, i can see someone buying dems at 10%, maybe even up to 15. I do not understand multiple buys up to 18%. but hey, maybe i'm wrong!
