Coup in Iran, Egypt, Syria, Jordan or Lebanon before 2025
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Plus
73
Ṁ7820
Dec 31
15%
chance

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any formal or official announcement or confirmation is made before January 1, 2025, indicating that a coup d'etat has occurred in Iran, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, or Lebanon. A coup d'etat refers to the unlawful, unconstitutional overthrow of a government, typically by a faction within the country's political, military, or governmental structure. This could include but is not limited to the ousting, arrest, or death of a current leader and the subsequent installation of a new leader without a legal or constitutional process.

The coup d'etat must be reported by 3 of the following sources:

  • international news organizations (each counts as 1)

    • BBC

    • CNN

    • Al Jazeera

    • Reuters

  • Official government sources (each counts as 1)

    • United States

    • the United Kingdom

    • France

    • China

    • Russia

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I found 6 successful coups in the last 70 years according to Bard. 6/70 = 8.6%

Sorry for asking, but what a coup in Syria will looks like? It is already under a coup

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