If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later? | Manifold

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?

Plus

7

Ṁ283

2040

23%

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

20%

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

13%

1-2x FLOP/s per dollar

17%

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

27%

>4x FLOP/s per dollar

IE what wil the ratio of top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar 5 years after invasion be to top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar before invasion.

I'll use the resolution criteria of this Metaculus question to operationalize invasion:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10880f

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

I feel like big tech would find the resources and will to counterfactually speed up top-ML chip production elsewhere by years. Or we'll get a world war with top-ML chip production falling worldwide and militaries acquiring a majority of the existing chips.

Related questions

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?

Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?

Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?

Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?

-6% 1d34% chance

If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?

Will China invade/blockade Taiwan in 2024?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2025?

Related questions

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?

If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?

Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?

Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?

If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?

Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?

Will China invade/blockade Taiwan in 2024?

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2025?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules