(destroyed as deterrence counts)

Resolves yes if I think chip fabs were destroyed with >80% confidence and resolves no if I think chip fabs weren't destroyed with >90% confidence, otherwise resolves ambiguously.

Resolves on Jan 1st 2030 or at any point I think substantial quantities of chip fabs were destroyed with >90% confidence.

I will determine 'substantial' subjectively, but intend it to mean something like "chip production is slowed by >40% for multiple years"

Edit: "global chip production is slowed by >40% for multiple years"