Cabinet members as per https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers
On the day any member of cabinet resigns, is fired, dies, or otherwise ceases to hold a position in cabinet, the close date will update to midnight of that day. After close, this market will resolve YES to all cabinet members who have left on that day and NO to all who retain any cabinet position.
Being promoted to another cabinet position does not count as leaving.
If all cabinet members are replaced simultaneously e.g. at a general election then it will resolve YES for all cabinet members.
If this market reaches the original close date with nobody leaving cabinet then it will be extended by a year.
Related questions
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@Tomoffer Correct, this is now a race between any member leaving and the election leading to some or all of them leaving cabinet.
Keegan: ‘I’d have punched Ofsted inspector’
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/keegan-id-have-punched-ofsted-inspector/
Another great week for cabinet covering themselves in glory.
Interesting potential outcomes for this one. If this is an election cabinet and we’re heading towards an early election, every person in this list will resolve 100% if the party loses the election.
If this is a stability cabinet to try and push elections out as far as possible, it’s quite likely only one or two might resolve 100%.