Which prediction market will call the presidential winner first? (95% prob at Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi, Predictit)
Plus
22
Ṁ1571Nov 5
29%
Polymarket
31%
Manifold
31%
Kalshi
9%
Predictit
Resolution is based on the EST time when the eventual winner first reaches 95% win probability on the platform and stays above it for most of the subsequent 6 hour period (unless it is resolved first).
All platforms are expected to be online and available for live trading. No special considerations will be made for technical outage, trading restrictions, manipulation, etc.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@mods I will need help determining when the Manifold market first crossed 95%. I should be able to determine the other options independently https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
I found a dashboard that may have all the relevant data https://www.thesupermodel.com/p/presidential-winner
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