If Trump wins the election in 2024, his record in office could affect the results of 2028, either by causing people to sour on the Republican Party, or convincing more people to vote for the Republican Party after a successful term. Therefore, the probability here should not necessarily be the same as /PlasmaBallin/will-a-republican-be-elected-presid
No matter who wins the 2024 election, the 2028 election is likely to have no incumbent, since either Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be prevented from running for reelection by term limits. Therefore, the difference between this market and the unconditional version can be compared to the difference between /PlasmaBallin/conditional-on-a-biden-being-electe and /PlasmaBallin/will-a-democrat-be-elected-presiden, since neither one is influenced by an incumbency advantage or disadvantage - both are purely measures of whether a certain candidate's term will strengthen or weaken the chances of their party's next nominee.
1,000
3.00@firstuserhere These are interesting markets! The question of whether the white house is a pendulum is a classic. I'm not betting myself, though. Too far out, too much chance of N/A, and I don't have a good enough idea of the base rate to even adjust it if I had an opinion on the amount to adjust.