Will any LLM released in the next year double my coding productivity? | Manifold

Will any LLM released in the next year double my coding productivity?

Basic

6

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Jan 1

24%

chance

1D

1W

1M

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Resolves YES if, on any day after July 20, 2024, I commit twice as much code as any day before that, while using an LLM released between July 20, 2024 and July 19, 2025.

I will not trade in this market. I will likely upgrade it to basic after the first next-generation LLM is actually released.

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Are you alternating your coding days; like odd days == no-AI, even days == AI?. Don't know how else to make sense of the description.

I find AI makes you optimistic that it holds the answers, and then you spend net more time fixing bugs; but comparing AI vs no AI days you still net code more as it tends to make you optimistic about getting stuff done vs laziness about tackling new projects...

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