The number of hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2024 as determined by NOAA.
@ScottSupak why would this be the case? I think the classifier of "forms in the Atlantic" means rather than the Pacific. I think if it forms over land this would still count
@benshindel I'll wait for NOAA to give an official number of course, but the title of the question is "The number of hurricanes **in the Atlantic** in 2024"
Of course, I've left myself open to the possibility of something forming in the Pacific and crossing over to become a hurricane, so in the future, I'll use "formed" to be more precise.
@ChristopherRandles
> Only 2 percent of all Atlantic tropical cyclones have formed over land (1851-2015), according to Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist with The Weather Channel.
Not sure if they went on to become Atlantic hurricanes? But if they did, they'd count!
@ScottSupak So if a tropical storm forms in the Atlantic, moves inland, becomes a hurricane 2 miles inland from East coast of Mexico, weakens to a tropical storm 10 miles from East coast of Mexico and continues to Pacific where it might or might not restrengthen to a hurricane, it would never have been a hurricane "in the atlantic" but it is an atlantic formed and named system that became a hurricane then this resolves as?
I doubt it will happen so no worries really.
@ChristopherRandles I love hypotheticals as much as the next guy and in this case the next guy works at NOAA and I'll go by his count of "Atlantic Hurricanes" lol
Updating due to the lack of activity -- basing on a 1991-2023 climatology:
As of now there are 4 recorded hurricanes, and none expected in the next 2-3 days. Normally would expect by August 23 there would be about a 69% chance of having at least 4 hurricanes, a 51% of at least 5, a 34% chance of at least 6, and a 20% chances of at least 7.
For the rest of the year climatologically, there is about a 50% chance we end up with 0-6 hurricanes and a 48% with 7-10. Given the prior forecasts of an above average season can't decide definitively which scenario is more likely given about 40% of the hurricane season is still remaining, but I'm leaning towards a normal season.
Will try to remember in about 10 days or thereabouts when the current forecast disturbance in the TWO for the Caribbean resolves relevant to this market.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season
Above normal = 8-13 hurricanes. This market seems miscalibrated.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Also, the highest count ever was 15 hurricanes in 2005. Most years are in single digits.
@ScottSupak Please don't tell me you're forecasting using hour 384 of the GFS...
@SaviorofPlant Forecasting? Well, no... but this is the first thing to pop up that's got a chance, so, it's worth noting.