Will Trump improve his margin with Black voters in 2024?
Basic
22
π754Jan 1
97%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
CNN's exit poll in 2020 found Biden+75, Fox found Biden +83. Resolves Yes if the mean between the two sources is <D+79
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Resolves Yes if the mean between the two sources is <D+79
CNN[1] has D+74 and Fox[1] has D+66 for an average of D+70, which is less than D+79. Should resolve positively. @Manifold
[1] https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0
[2] https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2024/general-results/voter-analysis
And here are the links to the 2020 numbers mentioned in the resolution criteria for reference:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis
bought π18.32 YES
Related questions
Related questions
Will Trump get more votes in 2024 than he got in 2020?
99% chance
Will Trump win Michigan in the 2024 Presidential Election?
99% chance
Will Donald Trump receive 20% or more of the black vote in the 2024 election?
8% chance
Will the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024 win any states that voted for Trump in 2020?
1% chance
Will Black vote for Trump increase significantly from 2020 to 2024?
53% chance
Where will Donald Trump win more votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election than he did in the 2020 election?
Will the percent of black women who vote for Harris and not Trump in the 2024 election be higher than 93%?
Will Donald Outperform Polls in the 2024 election?
99% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?
99% chance
Will Trump win the black vote?
11% chance