Boeing's first crewed Starliner mission is having some difficulties, and return has now been delayed until June 22 at the earliest. "This is the second delay in Starliner's scheduled return date"
https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-first-astronaut-mission-return-delayed-june-22
Resolves YES only if BOTH Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams both return to earth alive on a SpaceX dragon.
Resolves NO if anything else. Examples: If they return on some other craft, or one returns on a Russian craft, or one of them dies, etc.
[Edit Aug 2: If only one astronaut returns on a Dragon, this market stays open until there is certainty about the second astronaut.]
Presumably this and https://manifold.markets/TimothyBandors/will-boeings-starliner-return-with should not sum to more than 100
@Shihan they should sum to <100, not >100. Together they cover the possibilities
at least one astronaut leaves on Starliner
both successfully rescued by Dragon
leaving out such possibilities as
both die on the station
both rescued by Soyuz
one rescued by Dragon, other as above
Note that that market is for whether an astronaut ever returns on the currently docked Starliner. It doesn't have to be Butch and Suni.
military industrial complex insane leverage vs NASA safety procedures