In the first Great Depression, the stock market fell, leading to an initial crisis, and then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 severely curtailed global trade both by instituting tariffs on US goods and inviting retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

Similarly, in 2025, the stock market crashed, and then worldwide tariffs were imposed. However, whereas the 1930 trade war only increased tariffs to 20%, the weighted average United States tariffs in 2025 already falls between 25% and 30% (depending on source), even before the cycle of retaliatory tariffs has begun.

This market will resolve to YES if, at any time before January 1, 2027, it is the consensus of largely unbiased mainstream sources like The New York Times, CNN, ABC, or CBS that the economy is or was in a "depression" after January 1, 2025. Use of the word "recession" is insufficient for YES. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.

As there are no official criteria for what a "depression" is, it is impossible to create a numeric answer for this market; however, it is to be understood that the criteria for a recession (two quarters of GDP losses) are required for the market to resolve to YES in addition to the criteria above. Additionally, one article is insufficient; there must be many articles and TV reports from multiple writers with a consensus that the economy is either in a depression or in some new term that is functionally equivalent to what happened in the early 1930s.

Note that the tariffs are not required to be the only cause; AI layoffs and wars may also lead to a YES resolution.