Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
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Plans underway for Jimmy Carterโ€™s 100th birthday

Matt Kempner

6 - 7 minutes

The unthinkable is being thought among those close to Jimmy Carter.

The former president, who entered hospice care 16 months ago, may make it to his 100th birthday on Oct. 1. Some are making plans to mark the occasion.

Among them is Jill Stuckey, a family friend and superintendent of the Jimmy Carter National Historical Park in the former presidentโ€™s hometown. She said she visits with him nearly every day.

โ€œI think he is going to make it to 100,โ€ Stuckey said. โ€œI donโ€™t know that he is saying that, โ€˜Iโ€™m going to live to 100.โ€™ But I do know there is will to live in all of us, and I think he has that same will.โ€

When Carter entered hospice care in February of last year, doctors told the family he might have only days to live.

About 500 days have passed since then.

Carter has outlived Rosalynn Carter, his wife of 77 years, who entered hospice nine months after he did and died in November. The former president hasnโ€™t made a public appearance since her funeral. Instead, he remains inside the coupleโ€™s modest home in Plains in south Georgia. Still, he cast a mail-in ballot for the primary election in May.

He has already lived longer than any U.S. president in history.

ExplorePainting tools used by Jimmy Carter fetch $1M in fundraising auction for his Carter Center

Recognitions for Carterโ€™s centennial include a 100-mile community bicycle ride in his home county and a free film festival in Atlanta organized by the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum.

โ€œWe have always planned to celebrate the 100th anniversary of his birth, and it just makes it even more special that he is still with us,โ€ said Tony Clark, a spokesperson for the Atlanta-based library.

Staff are still working out some of the plans. But locked in is an indoor and outdoor film festival at the presidential library on Sept. 28, the Saturday before Carterโ€™s birthday, from 10 a.m. to 10 p.m., featuring some of his favorite movies while in office.

According to the libraryโ€™s records, hundreds of movies were shown at the White House during his presidency, including All the Presidentโ€™s Men, Rocky, One Flew Over the Cuckooโ€™s Nest, The Blue Lagoon, Caddyshack, Kramer vs. Kramer and Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. He watched parts or all of at least some of the films.

While Carter was Georgiaโ€™s governor he helped create an economic development push to film more movies in the state. He has another important connection to the big screen. Carterโ€™s first date with Rosalynn Carter was at the movies. The next morning he told his mother he had found the person he would marry.

Admission to the library will be free on the day of the film festival. And on Oct. 1, Carterโ€™s actual birthday, the library will follow its tradition of having the admission price match the presidentโ€™s age: $1.00. (Last year on his 99th birthday, it was 99 cents.) As always, kids 16 or younger get in free.

ExploreCarter Presidential Center in Atlanta is both presidential library and headquarters for Carterโ€™s efforts around the globe

The library and museum also intends to have a new exhibit about Carterโ€™s 100 years, including documents, photos and art that havenโ€™t been on display at the facility before, Clark said.

The adjacent Carter Center, the nonprofit that the former first couple founded to improve health, encourage freedom and spread peace globally, has yet to disclose how Carterโ€™s birthday will be celebrated. The centerโ€™s chief executive, Paige Alexander, offered little more than a one-word hint: โ€œmusic.โ€

โ€œMusic was an important part of his life. It will have something to do with that,โ€ she said.

Habitat for Humanity, the Georgia-based homebuilding nonprofit that the Carters championed for more t

han three decades, already does a special building push each year coinciding with the former presidentโ€™s birthday. This year the weeklong Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter Work Project will be in St. Paul, Minnesota.

Alexander said this past week that there hasnโ€™t been a change in Carterโ€™s condition. She told the Atlanta Journal-Constitutionโ€™s โ€œPolitically Georgiaโ€ in May that he was โ€œenjoying peanut butter ice cream.โ€

Jason Carter said on the AJCโ€™s Monica Pearson Show in May that he recently told his grandfather that heโ€™s never sure how to respond when asked how the former president is doing.

โ€œHe kind of laughed a little bit, and he looked at me, and he said: โ€˜I donโ€™t know myself,โ€™โ€ Jason Carter told Pearson. โ€œBut I think heโ€™s OK. You know, heโ€™s hanging in there, and he knows heโ€™s not in charge. So heโ€™s just waiting for whatโ€™s next.โ€

Groups in Carterโ€™s hometown of Plains are still sketching out plans for how to pay tribute around the time of his birthday.

ExploreGuide to visiting the Jimmy Carter historic sites in South Georgia

Sumter Cycling, a nonprofit of southwest Georgia cyclers in Carterโ€™s native Sumter County, typically holds a nearly 50-mile bicycle ride to coincide with the Plains Peanut Festival, which this year falls on the Saturday before Carterโ€™s birthday. Now organizers are hashing out plans to more than double the Plains, Trains and Bike Chains ride to 100 miles in recognition of the former presidentโ€™s big day.

The nearby Jimmy Carter National Historical Park is planning a riff on the Cartersโ€™ frugality. Staffers are putting together a list of 100 ways to save time, energy and money.

โ€œThatโ€™s near and dear to the Cartersโ€™ hearts,โ€ said Stuckey, the parkโ€™s superintendent.

Editorโ€™s note: A list was updated to reflect that Joe Biden recently passed Richard Nixon as the 10th longest-living president.

ExploreTop item at f

undraiser? $1 million for Jimmy Carterโ€™s old art tools, print

Knock knock, anybody still home?

It was "final chapter" in Aug2023, now it's "near the end". There's still a subtle difference.

Him "still recognizing people" is now treated as remarkable. He had way more life in him even last year.

Now?

a few weeks ago

I guess the info "a few weeks ago" speaks more for itself at this point than the subjective descriptions given in the article

@StochasticParrot Give us the details how it is resolving if on October 1 he is passing? I have the feeling it will be coming down to wires!

He's already a centenarian... he would >50% survive if born prematurely 100 years ago

I like the sound of that, let's get this market resolved ASAP.

There is 3 months left until jimmy either becomes 100 or he dies. The annual survival rate for a 99 year old is 75-80%. The three month survival rate is about 1 - (1-ASR/4). This means that there is a 93.75% chance that jimmy Carter will become a centenarian.

2 traders bought แน€150 YES
bought แน€150 NO

Back to reality.

2 traders bought แน€400 YES

In mere minutes, he's on his hundred day countdown at www.centuryofcarter.com

This market is correctly priced at roughly 80%

bought แน€250 YES at 57%

Bless your heart!

bought แน€750 YES

Zoom, zoom, zoom. We're going to the moon.

@DrDerek ( อกยฐ อœส– อกยฐ)ย 

I agree, 80% with an error margin of plus or minus 40. Keep buying YES, I need more time to load up the boat before the market goes down again.

bought แน€100 NO

80% sounds high given reports of his current condition, but this market is now probably close to fair (I'm buying NO because I'm a degen)

Social security actuarial table alone gives him (1-0.3416)^(109/365) = 0.88 chance of survival. The average hospice stay is 70 days but that's such a heterogeneous group that it seems reasonable to increase, rather than decrease, his life expectancy with each day he survives in there. Conditioning on the fact that he's already survived 1.3 years in hospice, his life expectancy is probably at least several months. It's hard to have a strong inside view that he's going to croak imminently when the interview with the family says nothing's changed in the last few months and the only remarkable thing is that he sleeps a lot.

bought แน€20 YES

As I said before, some NO bettors here clearly show signs of a continuous death wish. Absent any news, this market must follow a upward slope curve

bought แน€350 NO from 51% to 49%
bought แน€111 YES from 49% to 51%

Correct. The longer he goes without major health issues appearing, the more the correct estimate should converge to a standard estimate based on his age.

And it should have already converged to that quite some time ago.

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