Will I weigh <145 pounds by Jan 1, 2025?
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Plus
62
แน€52k
Jan 1
64%
chance

Update Aug 19: You can now see my daily weigh ins here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1get_QTibMAz8Sv3imAKRwrH2VHiRNHN-y2CyPuDt66o/edit?usp=sharing

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My last weigh in as of starting this market was on July 26, 2024 at 162.0 pounds.

I'm 5'4'' tall

I don't currently regularly exercise. I have a terrible sweet tooth and use food to cope.

I've been overweight since I got married in 2012, though I did get down to 145 pounds in 2020.

This will resolve to yes if my weigh in on the morning of January 1, 2025 is <145

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Do you plan on using means that would lower your weight at the very moment you go on the scale while not being a true stable weight loss ? (e.g getting dehydrated)

@Mich I'd consider it if I was close

JFYI I'll be traveling the rest of this week and much of next week. This means no weigh ins and extra temptation to eat + harder to exercise

Just posted my lowest weigh in since October 2021

@TrevorMcKendrick I'll wait a few days to see if regression to the mean will kick in

@TrevorMcKendrick damn!...I mean, good work!

This will resolve to yes if my weigh in on the morning of January 1, 2025 is <145

if it drops <145 but returns to >145 on January 1, it doesnโ€™t count, right? but the question title implies it does

@ismellpillows Correct. The weigh in must be <145 on January 1.

I thought about updating the title but there was no way to leave a comment on the edit, and I did specify how this would resolve in the description, so I opted to leave the title the same.

Well look at this! We have a bunch of people betting against me.

I shared this new fact with my brothers and one of them said "Theyโ€™ve fallen victim to one of the classic blunders. Never go in against a McKendrick, when theyโ€™re trying to prove someone wrong."

Let the real games begin.

2 traders bought แน€150 YES
bought แน€100 NO at 62%

@TrevorMcKendrick So what youโ€™re saying is everyone should bet NO if they want to help you succeedโ€ฆ :)

bought แน€5 NO

@TrevorMcKendrick If that's what it takes to get you there, game on!

bought แน€250 NO

I think you're going to pack on so much muscle that you won't make it ๐Ÿ’ช

bought แน€500 NO

I think you'll get close... but Thanksgiving + Christmas + NYE are brutal to get through in my experience. Prove me wrong or gimme those sweet sweet points ๐Ÿ‘ฟ

@HankTaylor glad my points are against Hank here. LET'S GOOOOO

bought แน€100 YES

I voted yes don't let me down ๐Ÿ˜ค (seriously though I believe in you!)

bought แน€25 NO

Great progress so far, congrats!! I am rooting for you and betting against you as a hedge :)

What are your specific motivations to be at this weight goal by this timeline? Is it important to you? Is your ultimate weight goal near this level or lower?

I lost a bunch of weight during Covid, getting as low as 145. It's the lowest I've been since I got married and it felt genuinely amazing.

I belief right around that number I move from medically overweight for my height to normal weight

boughtแน€1,100YES

@DanielMcKendrick Hero purchase!

bought แน€1,000 YES from 54% to 56%

156.5, looking good!

You've gone from 161.5 to 156.5 in 20 days, averaging 0.25 pounds per day. With 127 days remaining in the year, that rate would land you at 124.75. I know life isn't linear, but I'm feeling bullish

bought แน€500 YES from 56% to 57%

Vamos!!

bought แน€300 YES at 45%
bought แน€300 YES

phenomenal progress my dude ๐Ÿ’ช

Thank you!!