World Chess Championship Round 7 - Prop Bets

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Ṁ20k

resolved Dec 3

Resolved

Gukesh plays 1. e4

Resolved

Someone does not castle before move 15

Resolved

YES

The sum of the numerical part of both first moves <= 9 e.g 1.g3 h5 = 8

Resolved

YES

Ding will be the first one to have 15+ minute think between the moves

Resolved

YES

Someone will sack material (he is down at least 1 point of material for 3+ moves)

Resolved

YES

Game will last 40+ moves

Resolved

YES

Someone achieves a passed pawn before move 30

Resolved

YES

Someone will have 40%+ win likelihood at any point after move 10 according to Leela (https://live.lczero.org/)

Resolved

It will be a quick draw lasting 30 moves or less

Resolved

Both players will have their queens off the board before move 25

Resolved

Game ends in a draw by threefold repetition

Resolved

Gukesh wins

Resolved

Ding wins

Resolved

YES

One player will have less than 3 minutes on their clock before move 40

Resolved

A player gets a >20% winning chance on lczero after move 60

Resolved

Either player has a flawless game according to lichess postgame analysis

Resolved

At some point there are only kings, rooks and pawns on the board

Resolved

Someone spends 30+ minutes thinking for one move

Add any options you want. Ask for clarification if any options are unclear.

The game will be played on Tuesday, 3rd of December, 9 AM GMT.

https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-chess-world-championship/07/Gukesh_D-Ding_Liren

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): For any move-related criteria, the move count refers to the player to move's moves.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#2024 World Chess Championship

#Prop Bets

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Next market https://manifold.markets/Weezing/world-chess-championship-round-8-pr

@traders

@Weezing hell yeah thank u!

sold Ṁ3 YES

That's all, folks! Nice spectating with y'all.

it's a good thing Manifold is play money because i don't know i could take having actual money in such a market

@dlin007 yea, for me betting play money is fun, betting real money in large amounts would be stressful.

@Weezing absolutely same, especially given my irrational confidence

Btw I dont have time today for real time resolving, but I will try to resolve everything today or tomorrow at worst.

sold Ṁ167 NO

We've got an ambiguity -- whose move 40? If it's the player to move's move 40, then this resolves YES; if it's move 40 in general, then this resolves NO.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Calibrate I would have interpreted this as the player to move.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Calibrate i guess player itself makes the nost sense

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Weezing Tuned in just in time to see the wheels come off of Gukesh!

@Calibrate I was like damn it Gukesh wins just after I bet on Ding and cant watch games. And the moment later... Nevermind, all is good.

My engine-driven betting is about to backfire bigtime

bought Ṁ400 YES

@Weezing bada bing

sold Ṁ2 NO

Wasn't quick enough to sell there, unfortunately -- was still trying to process what the heck was going on!

bought Ṁ725 YES

@Weezing Resolves YES, no?

bought Ṁ220 YES

@Weezing resolves YES - Ding spent 15+ moves after 7.Re1

@Weezing Does only kings and pawns, but no rooks count? Or (less likely) only kings and rooks, but no pawns?

@Calibrate I dont think I can count that, since it is worded in this way. So all of them must be present.

@dlin007 e.g

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