How many votes will Kamala Harris receive in Pennsylvania? (Multiple Choice)
โž•
Plus
8
แน€2939
Nov 11
1.2%
Harris Less than 3,000,000
1.2%
Harris 3,000,000-3,099,999
1.2%
Harris 3,100,000-3,199,999
3%
Harris 3,200,000-3,299,999
84%
Harris 3,300,000-3,399,999
3%
Harris 3,400,000-3,499,999
2%
Harris 3,500,000-3,599,999
1.6%
Harris 3,600,000-3,699,999
1.2%
Harris 3,700,000-3,799,999
1.2%
Harris 3,800,000 or more

How many votes will Kamala Harris receive in the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

In 2020, Biden received 3,458,229 votes and Trump received 3,377,674 votes.
In 2016, Trump received 2,970,733 votes and Clinton received 2,926,441 votes.

Arbitrage between identical questions in two formats:

Set Question Format

Trump: https://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/how-many-votes-will-donald-trump-re-52hN9Usd8Z

Harris: https://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/how-many-votes-will-kamala-harris-r-C0yPs2dqZl

Multiple Choice Question Format
Trump: https://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/how-many-votes-will-donald-trump-re
Harris: https://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/how-many-votes-will-kamala-harris-r

#๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Politics
#๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 2024 US Presidential Election
#2024 US Election
#Democratic Party
#Kamala Harris
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There is a huge arbitrage opportunity between the Set questions and the MC questions. Right now:

The MC Harris question says 83% chance that Harris gets between 3.3M-3.6M votes.
The Set Harris question says 35% chance that Harris gets between 3.3M-3.6M votes.

Nuts!

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