Will Meta join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
29
1kṀ17202026
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if Meta enters into the same commitment, and shares their next major model release with the USA AISI in advance, or if Meta announces it will no longer be in the frontier model business.
Resolves to NO if Meta releases Llama 4, any model bigger than 500B or another major release without sharing with the USA AISI, or deadline passes and no commitment has been made.
(Note: Open/closed status of the model is irrelevant to this market.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
28% chance
Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
83% chance
Will OpenAI go back on its voluntary commitment to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
39% chance
When will OpenAI release an open source model?
Will Meta AI start an AGI alignment team before 2026?
35% chance
Will there be serious AI safety drama at Meta AI before 2026?
58% chance
By the end of 2025, will OpenAI and Anthropic merge?
4% chance
Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?
42% chance
Will Openai announce, or perform, a test-run of their agi-collaboration clause before Dec 31st, 2025?
6% chance
Will OpenAI get unrestricted access to >60% of the work done by METR baseliners?
50% chance