Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
Plus
33
Ṁ22742026
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if xAI enters into the same commitment, and shares their next major model release with the USA AISI in advance, or if xAI announces it will no longer be in the frontier model business.
Resolves to NO if xAI releases Grok 3 or another similarly major frontier model release without sharing with the USA AISI, or deadline passes and no commitment has been made.
(Note: Open/closed status of the model is irrelevant to this market.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Anthropic, Google, xAI or Meta release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
62% chance
Will OpenAI go back on its voluntary commitment to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
35% chance
Will Meta join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
38% chance
Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
86% chance
Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?
24% chance
Will OpenAI's structure change?
47% chance
Which (if any) "big tech" companies will "open source" their AI models in 2024?
AI: Will someone open-source a $100M model by 2025?
60% chance
Will Anthropic and OpenAI collaborate substantially on a research paper before 2025?
22% chance
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
21% chance