If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
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18
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70%
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Resolves N/A if Trump never goes to prison or is under house arrest post-conviction.
Resolves NO if Trump serves prison time post-conviction.
Resolves YES if Trump serves house arrest post-conviciton but NOT prison time.
This is meant to tease apart the differences between markets like the following:
https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison
https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
https://manifold.markets/DhruvRaghavan/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri
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