Outcome: the winner is the candidate who receives more than 50% of the valid votes in the election to be held in October 2024, as per the count of the electoral justice system.
Edit: This question will close on October 28, 2024 - the day after the runoff
@BrunoParga Hey! I created this question the week I joined manifold, I was still getting to know how to create a good bet. As I see today, I agree the current closing date doesn’t make much sense and it would be better to change it to the day of the runoff - what do you think?
@andyou I'm glad you're here :) one thing I've learned is that it's fine and desirable to leave the market open until after the event happens; that way, traders basically resolve the market for you, as they'll bet based on the actual result. So I'd set this to close the day after the runoff. I think even super close elections hardly ever take longer to resolve than the early morning on the day after. (#valeuTSE)