Will a major newspaper cite/reference a Manifold prediction market by the 2024 election?
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52
Ṁ4184
Nov 6
48%
chance

Resolves YES if I see proof that a major newspaper used/referenced a Manifold market in their coverage of a topic between now and the 2024 election.

Major newspapers for the purpose of this market are the NYT, the WSJ, and the Washington Post. Must be in print/online as a normal article (not a podcast, video, etc).

The newspaper must cite the actual prediction numbers to some extent (they cannot simply say that a market exists for it) to bolster their coverage. In other words, it should be used like fivethirtyeight or other statistical predictions/poll aggregators have been used in the past, broadly speaking.

Obviously I will not be reading every single article so if you see it, you may have to bring my attention to it.

I will NOT bet in this market.

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Seeing polymarket get used a LOT like this; maybe one of these enterprising major newspapers will throw Manifold a bone.

it's a shame this didn't cover books - Nate Silver's new book has multiple references to a certain Manifest 2023 market 😅

oooh I gotta get that book

he has a book event near you soon!
https://www.natesilver.net/p/welcome-to-the-river

reposted

Still hasn't happened, to my knowledge. Getting close to the election, and perhaps newspapers will mostly cite Polymarket, rather than Manifold?

reposted

Feels like this is bound to happen with the increased attention on prediction markets, after Biden makes his decision one way or another

Does it need to be an article about the election?

Feels like that's what you might be going for but you never actually say that.

@Daniel_MC Nope! Could be about anything, as long as it uses the market’s odds in its coverage

@BenjaminShindel The election end date is just an arbitrary end date that also conveniently contains all coverage about the election (which tends to bring out coverage of odds/predictions)