NC not being considered a swing state is an atrocity.

@JoshuaHerman30b8 Agreed. I included it on my question for "how many":

/EvanDaniel/close-states-how-many-of-7-will-vot

@JoshuaHerman30b8 I agree, but wanted a 1:1 match with the Polymarket one. Plus there's already some precedent for it with Biden to compare with

@Joshua want to bet?

Absolutely not. Just probabilistically this is like a .01% chance

@GregMister The swing of each state isn't an independent variable like a coin flip; if Harris's polls go up, it buoys her chances of winning in every state. I do agree it's unlikely though.

@GregMister and even if it were an independent coin flip for every state, it would still be 1.6%. Obviously the odds are higher than that

@SentientTree You shoild avoid "doing the math" if it delegimitizes your own point

@GregMister You said 0.01%. I'm just saying it's way higher than that

@SentientTree Its called hyperbole

I understand that it was the choice of the original author on Polymarket, but it's absurd to not count NC as a swing state.

Polymarket is at 27% so I'm surprised this is almost half that - https://polymarket.com/event/will-kamala-harris-win-every-swing-state?tid=1726167102459

Should this close in Nov? @dlin007

@mattyb ideally yes, but i kept it long enough to account for disputes, recounts, court challenges etc. I plan to resolve it as early as possible though