This makes no sense. Robotaxi is a concept, not a type of vehicle. The cars on the roads today will become robotaxis when the software is complete. The next generation vehicle will come in both forms, with a steering wheel and without.

@NiklasBergstrom ye Robotaxi as a term is fairly broad, but that’s why I reference Elon’s tweet to a specific car he will unveil that he refers to as “Tesla Robotaxi”

@elf Gotcha. A yes just means they show the car without a steering wheel.

Seems probable enough.

Is this a market about whatever is revealed in August, or about something that’s eventually on the road?

@DavidFWatson i would be shocked if it wasn't about what the upcoming robotaxi will actually be like

@Bayesian Right, but he can put whatever he wants up on a stage in a presentation, but that’s not gonna be identical to what’s eventually on the road.

@DavidFWatson Like, this market doesn’t currently say “resolves n/a If no announcement in August”

@DavidFWatson It’ll be based on what will actually be on the road. I figure that’s best as it’s possible the car will diverge from its pre-release design as it has to meet economic and regulatory constraints.

@elf uhh, either you're going to wait to see what's actually deployed, or you're going to resolve based on what's announced. I don't see how there's a middle ground.

@DavidFWatson what is the middle ground? I said it will be based on what’s on the road (i.e. what’s deployed)

@elf But what if he announces something called the model T in August, and it has no steering wheel, and then 2 years later no such vehicle is available for use.

Do you resolve n/a? Do we wait? How long?

What if they then launch a robotic taxi service with vehicles that aren’t purpose built for it?

@DavidFWatson This market makes way more sense if it’s based on the August presentation directly. Do they unveil a robotaxi with no steering wheel? If the presentation is canceled, resolve n/a

@DavidFWatson On second thought, I think you’re right.

I should have made that distinction more explicitly in the description & given that it’s at 75% now I think people have taken it to assume what’s specifically shown at the reveal event.

Will now resolve based on whatever we see in August.