![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2Fgrofigaszadosijv%252F7d12a25b568e.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza by Eoy 2024?
Basic
136
Ṁ12k2025
61%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will resolve this if a multiple month (minimum 3) ceasefire happens before the end of 2024
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
Define ceasefire. Likeliest outcome seems to be Hamas dismantled and a new governing body installed (with which Israel is not officially at war, but with Israel never making a formal ceasefire with Hamas), but still occasional bursts of terrorism or counterterrorism operations. Not sure how you'd count that.
@ShakedKoplewitz I would count it as an official announcement by the Israeli government (or another government that's involved in the war) that says they are ending the war/doing a ceasefire.
Related questions
🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?
39% chance
Will Hamas still control Gaza at the end of 2024?
50% chance
Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2024?
26% chance
Will there be a ceasefire for at least a month in the Israel-Hamas conflict before 1 Jan 2025?
51% chance
Will the Israel/Hamas conflict conclusively end in 2024 ?
23% chance
Will Biden publicly call for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza by the end of 2024? [w/o conditions on Hamas]
21% chance
Will the Israel/Hamas conflict conclusively end in 2024 ?
22% chance
Will the current Israel-Palestine conflict end in 2024?
22% chance
Will Hamas hold territory in the Gaza Strip at the end of 2024?
29% chance
Will the US successfully broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by the end of 2023?
3% chance