When will there be an Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire? [Ṁ3K SUBSIDY]
Basic
123
27k
2025
5%
July 1st or earlier
18%
August 1st or earlier
34%
September 1st or earlier
51%
October 1st or earlier
53%
November 1st or earlier
60%
December 1st or earlier
63%
January 1st or earlier
37%
No ceasefire in 2024
Resolved
NO
May 1st or earlier
Resolved
NO
June 1st or earlier

Each answer will resolve YES if there is a ceasefire announced between Israel and Hamas before the listed date, and fighting actually stops for atleast one day. The ceasefire, truce, or pause, must be reported by reputable sources and confirmed by Israel and Hamas. The actual stop in fighting can be confirmed by official sources and/or open source intelligence. Each answer will also resolve YES if the war ends before the listed date, and hostilities between Hamas and Israel end. As soon as each date passes (Israel time) without a ceasefire, that answer resolves NO.

Remember: Multiple options can resolve YES. So if there is a ceasefire announced on July 16th, "August 1st or earlier" AND all later answers resolve YES.

If by January 1st, 2025 there is no ceasefire, "No ceasefire in 2024" will resolve YES, and all other markets will have already resolved NO.

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If Hamas in Gaza is effectively eliminated, but Hezbollah joins the conflict and continues fighting, how does this resolve?

Since this question just mentions "Hamas", the reference to the "war" in the description is only the Israel Hamas war. If fighting stops with Hamas but is still ongoing with Hezbollah, it would be enough to resolve this market YES.

Each answer will also resolve YES if the war ends before the listed date, and hostilities between Hamas and Israel end.

bought Ṁ1,722 May 1st or earlier NO

May 1st resolves NO @mint

@chrisjbillington thanks, sorry for missing this

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