Each answer will resolve YES if there is a ceasefire announced between Israel and Hamas before the listed date, and fighting actually stops for atleast one day. The ceasefire, truce, or pause, must be reported by reputable sources and confirmed by Israel and Hamas. The actual stop in fighting can be confirmed by official sources and/or open source intelligence. Each answer will also resolve YES if the war ends before the listed date, and hostilities between Hamas and Israel end. As soon as each date passes (Israel time) without a ceasefire, that answer resolves NO.
Remember: Multiple options can resolve YES. So if there is a ceasefire announced on July 16th, "August 1st or earlier" AND all later answers resolve YES.
If by January 1st, 2025 there is no ceasefire, "No ceasefire in 2024" will resolve YES, and all other markets will have already resolved NO.
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Polymarket is far higher
https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-in-2024?tid=1733692747237
I'm a bit skeptical. Trump would want a ceasefire announced right before his inauguration, not in the next 3 weeks.
@nathanwei This is referring to a formal end of the war, more like a "permanent ceasefire" in terms of this market, which would be acknowledged by both sides. If Sinwar is killed, it likely wouldn't mean the war miraculously ends, just like it didn't when Haniyeh was killed. If Hamas becomes beaten so badly they don't have much means to conduct formal warfare beyond random guerillas, but at the same don't acknowledge defeat and are still trying to conduct attacks (even if limited), it won't count as the war ending.
@mint According to multiple media outlets, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a 3 day pause in fighting so the U.N. and other health agencies can administer polio vaccines. Would you count this?
@ReeMARKable according to CNN:
“We have a preliminary commitment for area-specific humanitarian pauses during the campaign,” he said, adding that the pauses will roll out first in “central Gaza for three days, followed by south Gaza and then followed by north Gaza.”
If this is what ends up happening, it won't be enough for this market. These are pauses only for certain regions, while fighting continues elsewhere. This isn't much different for when Israel sets up humanitarian or evacuation corridors, which happens every so often.
If there was a pause in fighting across the entire region for 3 days to administer polio vaccines, it would count.
I'm subsidizing this market and putting it on the front page, given today's news:
Joint Statement from the United States, Egypt, and Qatar
Over the last 48 hours in Doha, senior officials from our governments have engaged in intensive talks as mediators aiming to conclude the agreement for a ceasefire and release of hostages and detainees. These talks were serious and constructive and were conducted in a positive atmosphere. Earlier today in Doha, the United States with support from Egypt and Qatar, presented to both parties a bridging proposal that is consistent with the principles laid out by President Biden on May 31, 2024 and Security Council Resolution No. 2735. This proposal builds on areas of agreement over the past week, and bridges remaining gaps in the manner that allows for a swift implementation of the deal.
Working teams will continue technical work over the coming days on the details of implementation, including arrangements to implement the agreement’s extensive humanitarian provisions, as well as specifics relating to hostages and detainees.
Senior officials from our governments will reconvene in Cairo before the end of next week with the aim to conclude the deal under the terms put forward today. As the leaders of the three countries stated last week, “There is no further time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay. It is time to release the hostages and detainees, begin the ceasefire, and implement this agreement.”
The path is now set for that outcome, saving lives, bringing relief to the people of Gaza, and de-escalating regional tensions.
In all seriousness, it looks like the problem is that Hamas is categorically opposed to any deal that will impede their ability to rearm. Westerners think of this as a first step towards peace; Hamas thinks of this as a chance to catch their breath so they can fight even harder tomorrow (ideally against civilians and not soldiers this time).
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-names-sinwar-as-new-leader-following-haniyehs-assassination/
Yeah, definitely no ceasefire for a while (at a minimum until they're forced into another leadership election)
One of the big sticking points is that Israel wants to reserve the right to keep fighting if Hamas goes back on its word in some way, like doesn't release all the hostages they say they will. Hamas wants Israel to be committed to not fighting even if the ceasefire doesn't go completely in line with the agreement conditions.