Resolves YES if any instance Llama 3 400B tops GPT-4 turbo (currently in 1st place) in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard within a year of its release.
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Extrapolating the 8b to 70b ELO trend for LLAMA-2 and LLAMA-3 as log-linear to 400B, I get that 400B should be 5ish ELO below Turbo. I suppose that means Meta could throw some extra fine-tuning compute at 400B to get it above Turbo to look good, but I'm not sure how easy/worthwhile that is (especially if they barely beat Turbo).
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