Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
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Plus
14
Ṁ1549
2030
47%
chance

Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/

This question will resolve as Yes if the Iranian Government credibly states that it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.

Fine Print

For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.

For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).

The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) will be sufficient to resolve this question as Yes.

Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as Yes.

Click here for Harris market: https://manifold.markets/nic_kup/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030-1m684x7u18?play=true

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Is the relevant election the 2024 election? If Trump isn’t elected, does this resolve NO or N/A?

This market is going to cause heartache when Iran gets nukes, but doesn’t officially declare it.

@OP I will resolve how Metaculus resolves.

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