Will there be 2 or more combinatorics problems on IMO 2025 x Will AI get a gold medal on IMO 2025?
Plus
14
Ṁ12072025
25%
Yes/Yes
24%
Yes/No
37%
No/Yes
13%
No/No
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-imo, or the AIMO main prize resolves yes, then the AI has won a gold medal on the IMO.
The source for whether a problem is a combinatorics problem will be Evan Chen. https://web.evanchen.cc/upload/MOHS-hardness.pdf
I will not bet on this market. Market criteria may be adjusted for a short term.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Is there any particular reason to prefer Evan Chen’s MOHS document over shortlist categories? There’s a chance Evan doesn’t upload MOHS in 2025, or it might take a very long time.
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
69% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?
4% chance
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?
79% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
65% chance
Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?
75% chance
Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?
60% chance
Will AI win a gold on IMO before it wins a gold on IOI?
45% chance
Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?
80% chance
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?
79% chance
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2026?
84% chance