Will an AI get silver on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
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84%
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This market, but silver instead of gold criteria:
Getting gold would mean this market resolves YES, as an AI capable of getting above silver could also get silver.
Wikipedia's description of scoring:
The participants are ranked based on their individual scores. Medals are awarded to the highest ranked participants; slightly fewer than half of them receive a medal. The cutoffs (minimum scores required to receive a gold, silver, or bronze medal respectively) are then chosen so that the numbers of gold, silver and bronze medals awarded are approximately in the ratios 1:2:3. Participants who do not win a medal but who score 7 points on at least one problem receive an honorable mention.
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