Will an AI get bronze on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
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Plus
58
Ṁ8138
2026
83%
chance

This market, but bronze instead of gold criteria:

Getting gold or silver would mean this market resolves YES, as an AI capable of getting above bronze could also get bronze.

Wikipedia's description of scoring:

The participants are ranked based on their individual scores. Medals are awarded to the highest ranked participants; slightly fewer than half of them receive a medal. The cutoffs (minimum scores required to receive a gold, silver, or bronze medal respectively) are then chosen so that the numbers of gold, silver and bronze medals awarded are approximately in the ratios 1:2:3. Participants who do not win a medal but who score 7 points on at least one problem receive an honorable mention.

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bought Ṁ100 NO

The linked market in the description requires the time controls of the grand challenge. Deep mind used substantially more time than would be allowed in the IMO. Still super impressive though!

Arb

predicts YES

@BoltonBailey whoops, didn't notice these were already created.

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