GB is much higher in recent Olympics than France, 25ish to 10ish. France is hosting. But, Japan doubled its medal count when it hosted in "2020", but GB only added five medals to the average in 2012, and Brazil got 7 in 2016 (when it hosted) and in 2020. So, I don't think France is likely to do better than double up.

I haven't fully looked through distance to Olympics' effects on medals, but France and GB are pretty close. I expect a good year for GB.

bump - getting close

version with top 10 -> https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-ten-countries-will-win-the-mo

Will you resolve the top three earners to YES (not %)?

@NicoDelon yes (assuming i set it up correctly)

@strutheo ok, so USA and China are very safe options.

Under which flag?

@NicoDelon going to assume roc unless they say otherwise

@strutheo OK, that’s different, but even then it’s not clear they’ll be allowed to compete as part of the ROC.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231205-sports-bodies-ask-ioc-to-allow-russians-as-neutrals-for-2024-olympics

The IOC suspended the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) on October 12 for violating the territorial integrity of the membership of Ukraine by recognising illegally annexed territories.

@NicoDelon Should i make it russia (country) and make another for roc (if allowed to compete) ?

@strutheo By country you mean Russian athletes? That’s not how they would be ranked, would it? That is definitely not how I bet.

@NicoDelon i am not sure what the original person meant either. they put russia without specifying. if you have a proposed solution i'll be happy to change it

@strutheo I think sticking with ROC for now is best. Maybe the IOC will make a judgment call for how they’ll rank countries in the next few months.

@NicoDelon Would you resolve NA if they’re not allowed to compete?

@NicoDelon sure that sounds good, as soon as we have confirmation from the ioc

@strutheo I had Russia not being able to compete because of doping somewhere in the back of my head, but I have no clue about the difference between ROC and Russia for instance. I was thinking Russia’s ban could be lifted but didn’t research at all.

@JaimeSantaCruz this time it's because of the war in Ukraine and it might be harsher than the doping-related ban

@JaimeSantaCruz no worries, we're all learning here. i didnt know roc was recently banned either

@NicoDelon

just today https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024

@strutheo doesn't bode well for the ROC. I suppose it's fine to add an option for Russian athletes then (though since teams and flags are banned, it's unclear to me if they'll even be featured in the rankings).