Add answers: What will be the first digit of the number of electoral votes that Trump* will win in 2024?
Plus
50
Ṁ15kDec 21
0.2%
1
1.4%
2
98%
3
0.4%
4
0.2%
Feel free to add answers!
If Trump drops out for any reason, this question will be about the Republican presidential candidate instead.
Answers will be resolved based on the actual Electoral College votes, not electors' pledges. Unfaithful electors may impact the outcome.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 2 YES
I used the Metaculus dashboard and that gave like a 75% chance of something in the 200s.
Edit: Apparently it’s actually around a 50% chance.
Related questions
Related questions
What will be the margin of victory (in number of electors) for the 2024 US Presidential election?
When converted to base 5*, what will be the first digit of the number of electoral votes that Trump** will win in 2024?
Will the final tally of electoral votes awarded to Trump be an odd number?
11% chance
How much of the popular vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
Which of the following will happen in the 2024 Presidential election? [ADD YOUR OWN ANSWERS (**see note**)]
How Many Electoral Votes Will Donald Trump Receive in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
What will be the exact electoral college outcome in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
Open answer: How many electoral votes will the Democratic presidential candidate win in 2024?
Will Trump get more votes in 2024 than he got in 2020?
99% chance
Open answer: How many electoral votes will Trump* win in 2024?