As I read the criteria, this would resolve on the Harris vs Trump probabilities yes, or any future model if yet another candidate leaves the race. I think it's fair to call this current model separate from the one before, since they show different start dates. So the Trump win probability of 53% currently shown for July 26 is what the final Trump number will be compared to.
I am also noticing the title says "at least 10" and the criteria say "more than 10". This is ambiguous, so I am going to change the title to match the criteria. Admittedly it seems Trump changed from 41 to 51 over the course of the model as it was frozen when Biden dropped out. But I think that this shouldn't resolve Yes yet because the criteria dominate.
Silver has left 538 leaving me in a little bit of doubt. I'm not certain, but I assume that one way or another, 538 will get some kind of model up on their site. If so that's what I'll use.
If not, there's a chance that Silver's model could still appear somewhere. Would traders on this market like me to use that model if 538 doesn't put one out?