In which years will humanity still exist? (2050 to 1 million AD)
Standard
13
Ṁ566
10000
93%
2050 AD
84%
2100 AD
77%
2200 AD
67%
2500 AD
53%
10,000 AD
51%
100,000 AD
47%
1 million AD
29%
1 billion AD

I'm interested in how long Manifold thinks humanity will have a non-negligible chance of surviving. Although many people here are pretty doomy, most would probably agree we don't have a negligible chance of living to 2050 or 2100. But how long does that hold?

If we successfully get past AGI, our per-year probability of extinction will probably drastically decrease. Is this enough to carry us all the way to the heat death of the universe, or will even human-aligned AGI be unable to defend against every threat to the survival of humanity?

I would count "humanity" as any group of entities that generally consider themselves to share a common identity with people living today, passed down via an unbroken chain of succession. This could include digital minds, if those minds consider themselves to be "descended from humanity."

If 1 million AD isn't far enough in the future to get the odds as low as 2% or so, I may add even more options.

If we actually make it to December 31, 9999, I (or more likely a mod) will extend the resolution date. I assume resolution dates past 9999 would be included as a feature of Manifold by then.

I may bet in this market.

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The threat of additional dates being added makes me reluctant to even buy the no side of AD 1,000,000.

@HarrisonNathan What do you mean? Adding more dates shouldn't affect how the existing options resolve

@CDBiddulph I wasn't planning on HODLing for 997,976 years, though.

@HarrisonNathan In theory you'll eventually get ~all your mana back in loans

The only right answer!

And now it’s been ten thousand years

Man has cried a billion tears

For what he never knew

Now man’s days are through

But in eternal night

The twinkling of starlight….